AZAD JAMMU AND KASHMIR, abbreviated to AJK, goes to polls on July 21.
While the region is spread over 5500 sq. miles, its polling process is not
restricted to this much area; instead it stretches out to the whole country –
from Peshawar to Quetta to Karachi - as 12 out of the 41 direct seats of the
Legislative Assembly are filled in by the Kashmiris settled in Pakistan.
Since the launch of parliamentary form of government in AJK in 1975, it
will be the 9th general election for its legislature. After the imposition of
Gen Ziaul Haq’s martial law in Pakistan, the elected government in AJK also
remained suspended from August 1977 to June 1985 under the provision of section
53A of the AJK Interim Constitution Act, 1974.
When democracy was restored in Pakistan in 1985, elections were also
held for the AJK Assembly and an elected government took over here on June 17,
1985 and ever since, democratic process has continued here swimmingly without
drawing adverse effects from Pakistan, where five governments and assemblies
saw dismissals and dissolutions at the hands of presidents or army chiefs
between 1988 and 1999.
Over the same period, except for one all AJK assemblies have completed
their constitutional term of five years. The only one that could not complete
its term was dissolved in 1991, hardly a year after its inception, by the then
prime minister Raja Mumtaz Hussain Rathore himself, in exercise of his
constitutional powers. The sitting assembly completes its term on July 24,
three days before the polls that have attained much significance and attention
in the wake of involvement of three major Pakistani political parties, PPP,
PML-N and PTI.
“We have witnessed involvement of the federal government and some
mainstream Pakistani parties in our elections in the past, but this time round
it’s exceptional,” says analyst Mohammad Aslam Mir.
After 1947, the Muslim Conference (MC) was the lone political party in
AJK until late K. H. Khurshid founded Jammu Kashmir Liberation League (JKLL) in
1962, posing serious challenge to the former’s monopoly.
Though some other smaller parties and groups also emerged from time to
time, the MC and JKLL however remained arch-rivals for a long time.
While the JKLL did not enjoy external support, the MC however always availed
itself of the blessings of the powerful establishment. In 1973, Zulfikar Ali
Bhutto launched his PPP in AJK, and most of the cadres of JKLL switched over to
his party. Nevertheless, JKLL remained a force to reckon with until its founder
passed away in a road accident in March 1988.
The 1975 elections were boycotted by the MC, paving way for the PPP to
make a clean sweep along with its ally, the JKLL. In 1985 it was the PPP to
boycott general elections in accordance with a decision of the MRD in Pakistan.
Since Zia ul Haq’s leaning towards MC was an open secret, other opposition
parties forged an alliance against MC, but a law introduced by the
Zia-appointed chief executive at the eleventh hour split votes of alliance
members, eventually helping MC clinch power with the backing of Islamabad. In
the following elections, top PPP leadership would turn up to woo voters for its
nominees while the establishment backed faction of Muslim League of the time
would throw its weight behind the MC.
In the 2001 and 2006 elections, MC, for being Islamabad’s preference,
was able to have smooth sailing and form its governments in succession. Even
the party tickets to MC candidates for the 2006 polls were distributed by
Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain, leader of the military ruler backed PML-Q.
However, situation started turning unfavourable for the MC in
2009, when one of its leaders Raja Farooq Haider rebelled against party
president and then Prime Minister Sardar Attique Ahmed and formed a forward
block, which removed the latter with the help of PPP. Hardly after nine months,
both factions reunited and got Mr Haider elected as premier. But that did not
work for long, as just after another nine months Sardar Attique staged a
comeback in the office of prime minister with the help of PPP.
The development created a wide gulf between Attique and Haider, and the
latter then convinced Nawaz Sharif to formally launch PML-N in AJK. Mr Sharif
made the announcement to this effect at a public rally in Muzaffarabad in
December 2010.
2011 elections were basically a one-on-one fight between the PPP and the
PML-N, the former ruling the centre and the latter ruling the largest province
of Punjab. The MC that ruled AJK struggled for its survival between the two
mighty parties.
Then Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani and his ministers, PML-N leader
Nawaz Sharif and Punjab chief minister Shehbaz Sharif were among the key
leaders of both parties that toured different areas and addressed rallies ahead
of the 2011 polls.
As AJK has hardly gone against the centre, the result was obvious in
2011. PPP clinched victory and formed government in AJK. The PML-N, despite
being a nascent party, also did well by securing ten seats. The long time
ruling MC was reduced to four seats.
However, in 2016, it’s not just the PPP and the PML-N; Imran Khan’s PTI
has also made a foray into the AJK’s political arena.
As a result, the area of interest, activity and influence has moved
beyond AJK’s boundaries.
From early this year, the region has been witnessing frequent visits of
the central leadership of all three parties.
The PML-N took a lead with the participation of federal ministers
Barjees Tahir, Pervaiz Rasheed and PM’s special assistant Dr Asif Kirmani in
‘workers conventions’ at different district headquarters from January onwards.
Though PM Sharif has undertaken several tours to AJK after assuming
office in 2013, his first election related engagement was a meeting of PML-N
parliamentary board in Muzaffarabad in April. It was held at the residence of
Mr Haider to “send a message across the board that his party believed in taking
decisions on Kashmir on the soil of Kashmir.”
However, unlike Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari and Imran Khan, the PM has not
been able to address an open public meeting anywhere in AJK, mainly because of
his absence from country for medical treatment. One single public meeting by
him, his party believes, could have doubled support for them.
“If Prime Minister Sharif could himself lead the election campaign, his
party’s following could skyrocket. So far, he is being represented by some
cabinet members who may not be able to counter the PPP and PTI’s political
offensive,” says analyst Athar Masood Wani.
On the face of it, it sounds good to have the upper echelons of
Pakistani politics in AJK for it has brought the region into the limelight,
with mainstream electronic media sending its DSNG vans to give live coverage to
the top Pakistani leaders and print media allotting them space on national
pages.
However, the question that haunts the intelligentsia and commoners alike
is that whether these visits are beneficial for the region in actual fact?
The answer according to many analysts is in the negative. Instead
of discussing the issues close to the hearts of the local populace, these
leaders have spent much of their time in AJK in settling personal scores with
each other.
Issues of Pakistani politics have mostly dominated their speeches.
For example, in their early rallies Imran Khan and Mr Bhutto-Zardari
took PM Sharif to task over Panama Paper Leaks and sought his resignation. In
all rallies, the PPP chairman has constantly tried to establish a “nexus”
between PM Sharif and his Indian counterpart Narendra Modi in a bid to exploit
local sentiments, but his strategy has by and large failed to agitate the
electorate.
“It’s not an actual concern on Kashmir but a political tactic to traduce
the prime minister,” Mr Wani says.
Asrar Ayyub, another prominent analyst, agrees.
“The fact remains that none of them has spoken about the real issues of
Azad Kashmir. They have relied on mud slinging and in doing so have tried to
import allegation-ridden politics to this territory,” he says.
Of the myriad issues being faced by AJK, the major one is its
constitutional empowerment according to the spirit of the latest amendments in
the Constitution of Pakistan.
For example, the institution of AJK Council, which is a product of the
existing interim Constitution and is headed by the prime minister of Pakistan,
has 52 subjects in its legislative list. This institution wields executive,
legislative and financial powers and is not answerable to the AJK people, who
meet its expenditures from their taxes.
There have been great reservations about its wild powers in AJK, but
none of the leaders has ever uttered any single word to clip its wings and empower
the elected government in Muzaffarabad perhaps because status quo suits them as
well.
“Either these people profess naivety or they are virtually unaware of
the actual issues and sentiments of this area," says Aamina Irshad Khan, a
civil society activist.
People complain that even the election manifestos of these parties are
not explicit on AJK’s genuine issues. Neither do they suggest a clear-cut
roadmap to address these issues and enhance income of the cash-strapped region.
“Earlier the manifestos of indigenous parties would comprise assurances
that once in power they will take up these issues with the centre for
settlement… But since the mainstream Pakistani parties are themselves in the
fray, why don’t they give a categorical assurance on these pending issues,” questions
Ms Khan.
The contesting parties have also formed alliances or in some case
what they call seat adjustments. For example, the PML-N has fielded candidates
in 38 constituencies and offered two seat in Rawalakot district to Jammu
Kashmir Peoples Party (JKPP), which has sizeable support base in the Sudhan
dominant belts of Rawalakot and Sudhnoti districts. One constituency of Kashmir
refugees has been ceded by the PML-N to Jamaat-e-Islami (JI).
The PTI has entered into alliance as well as ‘seat adjustment’ with the MC,
something which was compulsion of both parties, because while the MC leadership
was already looking for an entente to check exodus from its ranks to other
parties, preferably the PML-N, the PTI also needed an ally to fill the gaps, as
it lacked mighty candidates in some constituencies in the southern districts.
Both parties have fielded joint candidates in 36 constituencies, 28 from
PTI and 8 from MC. The remaining constituencies have been left open, as their
nominees were unwilling to pull out in each other’s favour.
However fissures in the once most disciplined JI have taken everyone by
surprise. While the JI chief Abdul Rashid Turabi has announced support for the
PML-N, presumably in return for a reserved seat for himself, his predecessor
Sardar Ejaz Afzal Khan is being supported by MC in Rawalakot, in what is a local-level
seat adjustment deal.
The PPP is contesting single handedly and had fielded candidates in all
41 constituencies. However, the party is in dire straits for a number of
reasons, its poor performance over the past five years being one of them.
Initially many of its cabinet members refused to accept its ticket. On
June 19, two ticket holders, Chaudhry Ashraf from LA 3, Mirpur-III and Chaudhry
Anwaar ul Haq from LA-7, Bhimber-III, expressed their unwillingness to contest
on PPP ticket.
Mr Haq who was also chairman of PPP’s so called good governance
committee announced he would contest as an independent candidate, but Mr Ashraf
was lured into changing his decision.
However, the PPP got a jolt on July 16, when Mr Ashraf, withdrew from
elections, in protest against the “absolute
hostile, negative, hypocritical and insincere behavior of Prime Minister
Chaudhry Abdul Majeed towards him.”
On July 18, the second jolt for
the PPP was disqualification of Sardar Ghulam Sadiq, LA speaker and its
candidate from LA-18, Sudhnoti-II, by the high court for not being “sadiq and ameen.”
Even Mr Bhutto-Zardari acknowledges his party’s dismal performance
between the lines.
“There might have been mistakes by the PPP government. But from now
onwards I will now take care of everything myself and won’t let anyone to do
corruption,” he has said at many rallies.
However, advent of these parties and fiery speeches of their
leaders apart, it however remains a stark truth that AJK politics, once a
metaphor for ideology, has long been reduced to a paragon of biradrism
(clannish considerations).
“Ironically, it is no more the party or the political ideology,
it’s the clan that comes first now… People go for the candidate from their
clan, even if he is corrupt or incompetent,” laments Mr Mir.
Of the major tribes, Rajputs and Jats dominate the political landscape
in the southern districts of Kotli, Mirpur and Bhimber and happen to be each
other’s traditional rivals in politics. While Rajputs are in the folds of the
PML-N, the Jats who were by and large associated with the PPP now stand divided
after Barrister Sultan Mahmood, a key Jat leader, has switched to the PTI.
Mr Mahmood wields enough clout in the southern districts and poses more
threat to PPP than the PML-N. Perhaps that’s why Mr Bhutto-Zardari poured scorn
on him in his Rawalakot rally, asking people not to vote for the “habitual
turncoat and vagabond.”
Gujjars on the other hand are also a major tribe but they have not
restricted themselves to any particular political party. They too follow their
clan, religiously, regardless of political affiliations. In the six northern
districts, biradrism equally exists in the smaller clans.
“Biradri considerations have stained the institution of politics in our
small territory,” Mr Mir maintains.
All said and done, there is no denying it that the PML-N has an edge
over its rivals, an advantage that was on PPP’s side in 2011: It’s party’s
government in the centre.
“A silent majority of voters favours the party that is simultaneously in
power in Islamabad… They think that a like minded government in both capitals
can help AJK have smooth flow of funds and subsequent infrastructure
development and economic benefits,” remarks analyst Raja Shaukat Iqbal.
“On not a single occasion, a party has come into power in AJK that
didn’t have its parent party or supporters ruling Islamabad at that time,” he
points out, highlighting a trend that gives PML-N edge over its opponents.
One school of thought believes that the refugee seats in Pakistan badly
affect the mandate given by AJK people because elections in those
constituencies are rigged by the parties in power there, without any toil.
They fear that since nine of these seats are located in the Punjab, the provincial
PML-N government can easily manoeuvre to clinch them for its
nominees, the way MQM has been securing two seats in Karachi for its candidates
since 2006.
However, given some strict steps by the election commission, these seats
may not be a piece of cake in the July 21 polls, assert the officials.
In the 2011 elections, the number of registered voters in the 12
constituencies in Pakistan was 659801. However, after the elimination of dual
and bogus votes in new lists, this number has reduced to 444,634.
“Secondly, not only the polling material has been dispatched to these
constituencies under protection of army personnel, but also the army and
paramilitary personnel are being deployed in these constituencies like that of
the 29 constituencies in AJK, to arrest the chances of naked rigging, which had
been the hallmark of these constituencies in the past,” says election
commission spokesman Tariq Butt.
Even in the 29 constituencies of AJK, number of voters has decreased
from 2.37 million in 2011 to 2.237 million in 2016.
The election commission has deployed 22000 army, 8000 paramilitary and
7500 police personnel to ensure law and order and transparency of polls.
The apparent wave in favour of the PML-N notwithstanding, many pundits
predict a split mandate. But like the politics itself, the voters are also
unpredictable… They say politics is a game of possibilities and therefore
whoever plays his cards smartly will emerge triumphant on July 21.
Tariq Naqash
