AJK seeks "institutionalised support" to fight fiscal woes

The newly installed PML-N government in Azad Jammu and Kashmir (AJK) is looking for an

“institutionalised support" from the federal government rather than any one-time grant to tackle its fiscal woes. 

In this regard, the AJK government has prepared a detailed briefing for Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif on “what Muzaffarabad wants from Islamabad in the pursuance of two federal government notifications,” issued in 1971 and 1992 by the cabinet and finance divisions, respectively. 

Mr Sharif was scheduled to fly to Muzaffarabad on Thursday (Dec 8) to chair the budget session of the AJK Council, have a sitting with the ruling PML-N parliamentary party and attend a briefing on AJK’s overall needs.

All arrangements for his engagements were in readiness, but the visit was put off at the last moment due to “inclement weather.” 

 Sharing the salient points of AJK’s case with this scribe, Dr Najeeb Naqi, minister for finance, planning and development, said: “Even though our exchequer is hard pressed due to the huge fiscal liabilities inherited from the previous (PPP) government, we will however not seek any one time grant from Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif.” 

“Instead, we will request him to direct all the federal ministries and divisions to honour and implement, in letter and in spirit, the 1971 and 1992 notifications, which in turn will help us have sufficient funds on the one hand and ensure our representation, even if as an observer, in all federal entities on the other,” he added.  

While the 1971 notification explicitly states that “for all practical purposes AJK shall be treated as a de-facto province,” the 1992 notification deals with AJK’s fiscal needs, such as its share in the federal taxes, yearly increase in its development budget and availability of resources for construction of hydropower projects in the territory. 

Mr Naqi recalled that the 1992 notification declared that AJK’s share in federal taxes would be half of Balochistan’s share. 

“At that time Balochistan’s share was 5.1pc and ours was 2.27pc… Today, Balochistan’s share has excelled to 9.1pc but ours remains unchanged,” he said, adding, AJK government wanted its enhancement to at least 4.5pc.

Continuing, he said, AJK was being given water use charge of hydropower projects in its territory at the rate of Rs 0.15 per unit while the provinces were earlier getting Rs 0.425 per unit, which had lately been enhanced to Rs1.1.

Mr Naqi said financial issues related to the AJK Council also needed prime minister’s kind attention. 

In AJK, income tax and provincial taxes are collected by the department of Inland Revenue that falls under the administrative control of AJK Council. 

Of the income tax, the Council retains 20pc for itself and gives 80pc to the AJK government, but the latter has always alleged delays in its release. 

Though the entire amount of provincial taxes is given to the AJK government but lately the AJK cabinet has decided to make these collections by itself on the pattern of provinces. 

Dr Naqi said the 80:20 ratio was unjust and the prime minister would be asked to revise it to 95:5. 

Regarding AJK’s development budget, which is provided by the federal government as “block provision”, he said it was Rs 10bn in 2008-09 and Rs 12bn in 2016-17.

“Even in view of 10pc inflation, it should have been 18bn… We will ask the premier to enhance it to at least Rs 22bn in keeping with our specific needs,” he said.

He said the prime minister would also be requested to include two major roads in CPEC, besides directing the NHA to take over maintenance of major arteries liking AJK with Pakistan. 

The AJK finance minister maintained that 95pc of AJK’s recurring budget went to mandatory payments – salaries and pensions – and the remaining 5pc to allowances, leaving no money for the government to take any initiative in any field. 

“Huge expansion in AJK’s infrastructure has necessitated recruitment of additional human resource for its utilisation and upkeep, but the government is unable to do any of the two things due to resource constraints,” he said.

Tariq Naqash

Politics, the unpredictable game of possibilities: An overview of AJK polls

AZAD JAMMU AND KASHMIR, abbreviated to AJK, goes to polls on July 21. While the region is spread over 5500 sq. miles, its polling process is not restricted to this much area; instead it stretches out to the whole country – from Peshawar to Quetta to Karachi - as 12 out of the 41 direct seats of the Legislative Assembly are filled in by the Kashmiris settled in Pakistan.

Since the launch of parliamentary form of government in AJK in 1975, it will be the 9th general election for its legislature. After the imposition of Gen Ziaul Haq’s martial law in Pakistan, the elected government in AJK also remained suspended from August 1977 to June 1985 under the provision of section 53A of the AJK Interim Constitution Act, 1974.

When democracy was restored in Pakistan in 1985, elections were also held for the AJK Assembly and an elected government took over here on June 17, 1985 and ever since, democratic process has continued here swimmingly without drawing adverse effects from Pakistan, where five governments and assemblies saw dismissals and dissolutions at the hands of presidents or army chiefs between 1988 and 1999.

Over the same period, except for one all AJK assemblies have completed their constitutional term of five years. The only one that could not complete its term was dissolved in 1991, hardly a year after its inception, by the then prime minister Raja Mumtaz Hussain Rathore himself, in exercise of his constitutional powers. The sitting assembly completes its term on July 24, three days before the polls that have attained much significance and attention in the wake of involvement of three major Pakistani political parties, PPP, PML-N and PTI.

“We have witnessed involvement of the federal government and some mainstream Pakistani parties in our elections in the past, but this time round it’s exceptional,” says analyst Mohammad Aslam Mir.

After 1947, the Muslim Conference (MC) was the lone political party in AJK until late K. H. Khurshid founded Jammu Kashmir Liberation League (JKLL) in 1962, posing serious challenge to the former’s monopoly.

Though some other smaller parties and groups also emerged from time to time, the MC and JKLL however remained arch-rivals for a long time. While the JKLL did not enjoy external support, the MC however always availed itself of the blessings of the powerful establishment. In 1973, Zulfikar Ali Bhutto launched his PPP in AJK, and most of the cadres of JKLL switched over to his party. Nevertheless, JKLL remained a force to reckon with until its founder passed away in a road accident in March 1988.

The 1975 elections were boycotted by the MC, paving way for the PPP to make a clean sweep along with its ally, the JKLL. In 1985 it was the PPP to boycott general elections in accordance with a decision of the MRD in Pakistan. Since Zia ul Haq’s leaning towards MC was an open secret, other opposition parties forged an alliance against MC, but a law introduced by the Zia-appointed chief executive at the eleventh hour split votes of alliance members, eventually helping MC clinch power with the backing of Islamabad. In the following elections, top PPP leadership would turn up to woo voters for its nominees while the establishment backed faction of Muslim League of the time would throw its weight behind the MC.

In the 2001 and 2006 elections, MC, for being Islamabad’s preference, was able to have smooth sailing and form its governments in succession. Even the party tickets to MC candidates for the 2006 polls were distributed by Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain, leader of the military ruler backed PML-Q.  

However, situation started turning unfavourable for the MC in 2009, when one of its leaders Raja Farooq Haider rebelled against party president and then Prime Minister Sardar Attique Ahmed and formed a forward block, which removed the latter with the help of PPP. Hardly after nine months, both factions reunited and got Mr Haider elected as premier. But that did not work for long, as just after another nine months Sardar Attique staged a comeback in the office of prime minister with the help of PPP.

The development created a wide gulf between Attique and Haider, and the latter then convinced Nawaz Sharif to formally launch PML-N in AJK. Mr Sharif made the announcement to this effect at a public rally in Muzaffarabad in December 2010.

2011 elections were basically a one-on-one fight between the PPP and the PML-N, the former ruling the centre and the latter ruling the largest province of Punjab. The MC that ruled AJK struggled for its survival between the two mighty parties.  

Then Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani and his ministers, PML-N leader Nawaz Sharif and Punjab chief minister Shehbaz Sharif were among the key leaders of both parties that toured different areas and addressed rallies ahead of the 2011 polls.

As AJK has hardly gone against the centre, the result was obvious in 2011. PPP clinched victory and formed government in AJK. The PML-N, despite being a nascent party, also did well by securing ten seats. The long time ruling MC was reduced to four seats.

However, in 2016, it’s not just the PPP and the PML-N; Imran Khan’s PTI has also made a foray into the AJK’s political arena.

As a result, the area of interest, activity and influence has moved beyond AJK’s boundaries.

From early this year, the region has been witnessing frequent visits of the central leadership of all three parties.

The PML-N took a lead with the participation of federal ministers Barjees Tahir, Pervaiz Rasheed and PM’s special assistant Dr Asif Kirmani in ‘workers conventions’ at different district headquarters from January onwards.

Though PM Sharif has undertaken several tours to AJK after assuming office in 2013, his first election related engagement was a meeting of PML-N parliamentary board in Muzaffarabad in April. It was held at the residence of Mr Haider to “send a message across the board that his party believed in taking decisions on Kashmir on the soil of Kashmir.”

However, unlike Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari and Imran Khan, the PM has not been able to address an open public meeting anywhere in AJK, mainly because of his absence from country for medical treatment. One single public meeting by him, his party believes, could have doubled support for them.

“If Prime Minister Sharif could himself lead the election campaign, his party’s following could skyrocket. So far, he is being represented by some cabinet members who may not be able to counter the PPP and PTI’s political offensive,” says analyst Athar Masood Wani.

On the face of it, it sounds good to have the upper echelons of Pakistani politics in AJK for it has brought the region into the limelight, with mainstream electronic media sending its DSNG vans to give live coverage to the top Pakistani leaders and print media allotting them space on national pages.

However, the question that haunts the intelligentsia and commoners alike is that whether these visits are beneficial for the region in actual fact?  

The answer according to many analysts is in the negative. Instead of discussing the issues close to the hearts of the local populace, these leaders have spent much of their time in AJK in settling personal scores with each other.

Issues of Pakistani politics have mostly dominated their speeches.

For example, in their early rallies Imran Khan and Mr Bhutto-Zardari took PM Sharif to task over Panama Paper Leaks and sought his resignation. In all rallies, the PPP chairman has constantly tried to establish a “nexus” between PM Sharif and his Indian counterpart Narendra Modi in a bid to exploit local sentiments, but his strategy has by and large failed to agitate the electorate.

“It’s not an actual concern on Kashmir but a political tactic to traduce the prime minister,” Mr Wani says.

Asrar Ayyub, another prominent analyst, agrees.

“The fact remains that none of them has spoken about the real issues of Azad Kashmir. They have relied on mud slinging and in doing so have tried to import allegation-ridden politics to this territory,” he says. 

Of the myriad issues being faced by AJK, the major one is its constitutional empowerment according to the spirit of the latest amendments in the Constitution of Pakistan.

For example, the institution of AJK Council, which is a product of the existing interim Constitution and is headed by the prime minister of Pakistan, has 52 subjects in its legislative list. This institution wields executive, legislative and financial powers and is not answerable to the AJK people, who meet its expenditures from their taxes.

There have been great reservations about its wild powers in AJK, but none of the leaders has ever uttered any single word to clip its wings and empower the elected government in Muzaffarabad perhaps because status quo suits them as well.   

“Either these people profess naivety or they are virtually unaware of the actual issues and sentiments of this area," says Aamina Irshad Khan, a civil society activist.

People complain that even the election manifestos of these parties are not explicit on AJK’s genuine issues. Neither do they suggest a clear-cut roadmap to address these issues and enhance income of the cash-strapped region.

“Earlier the manifestos of indigenous parties would comprise assurances that once in power they will take up these issues with the centre for settlement… But since the mainstream Pakistani parties are themselves in the fray, why don’t they give a categorical assurance on these pending issues,” questions Ms Khan. 

The contesting parties have also formed alliances or in some case what they call seat adjustments. For example, the PML-N has fielded candidates in 38 constituencies and offered two seat in Rawalakot district to Jammu Kashmir Peoples Party (JKPP), which has sizeable support base in the Sudhan dominant belts of Rawalakot and Sudhnoti districts. One constituency of Kashmir refugees has been ceded by the PML-N to Jamaat-e-Islami (JI).

The PTI has entered into alliance as well as ‘seat adjustment’ with the MC, something which was compulsion of both parties, because while the MC leadership was already looking for an entente to check exodus from its ranks to other parties, preferably the PML-N, the PTI also needed an ally to fill the gaps, as it lacked mighty candidates in some constituencies in the southern districts.

Both parties have fielded joint candidates in 36 constituencies, 28 from PTI and 8 from MC. The remaining constituencies have been left open, as their nominees were unwilling to pull out in each other’s favour.

However fissures in the once most disciplined JI have taken everyone by surprise. While the JI chief Abdul Rashid Turabi has announced support for the PML-N, presumably in return for a reserved seat for himself, his predecessor Sardar Ejaz Afzal Khan is being supported by MC in Rawalakot, in what is a local-level seat adjustment deal.

The PPP is contesting single handedly and had fielded candidates in all 41 constituencies. However, the party is in dire straits for a number of reasons, its poor performance over the past five years being one of them.

Initially many of its cabinet members refused to accept its ticket. On June 19, two ticket holders, Chaudhry Ashraf from LA 3, Mirpur-III and Chaudhry Anwaar ul Haq from LA-7, Bhimber-III, expressed their unwillingness to contest on PPP ticket.

Mr Haq who was also chairman of PPP’s so called good governance committee announced he would contest as an independent candidate, but Mr Ashraf was lured into changing his decision.

However, the PPP got a jolt on July 16, when Mr Ashraf, withdrew from elections, in protest against the “absolute hostile, negative, hypocritical and insincere behavior of Prime Minister Chaudhry Abdul Majeed towards him.”

 On July 18, the second jolt for the PPP was disqualification of Sardar Ghulam Sadiq, LA speaker and its candidate from LA-18, Sudhnoti-II, by the high court for not being “sadiq and ameen.”

Even Mr Bhutto-Zardari acknowledges his party’s dismal performance between the lines.

“There might have been mistakes by the PPP government. But from now onwards I will now take care of everything myself and won’t let anyone to do corruption,” he has said at many rallies.

However, advent of these parties and fiery speeches of their leaders apart, it however remains a stark truth that AJK politics, once a metaphor for ideology, has long been reduced to a paragon of biradrism (clannish considerations).

“Ironically, it is no more the party or the political ideology, it’s the clan that comes first now… People go for the candidate from their clan, even if he is corrupt or incompetent,” laments Mr Mir.

Of the major tribes, Rajputs and Jats dominate the political landscape in the southern districts of Kotli, Mirpur and Bhimber and happen to be each other’s traditional rivals in politics. While Rajputs are in the folds of the PML-N, the Jats who were by and large associated with the PPP now stand divided after Barrister Sultan Mahmood, a key Jat leader, has switched to the PTI.

Mr Mahmood wields enough clout in the southern districts and poses more threat to PPP than the PML-N. Perhaps that’s why Mr Bhutto-Zardari poured scorn on him in his Rawalakot rally, asking people not to vote for the “habitual turncoat and vagabond.”

Gujjars on the other hand are also a major tribe but they have not restricted themselves to any particular political party. They too follow their clan, religiously, regardless of political affiliations. In the six northern districts, biradrism equally exists in the smaller clans.

“Biradri considerations have stained the institution of politics in our small territory,” Mr Mir maintains.

All said and done, there is no denying it that the PML-N has an edge over its rivals, an advantage that was on PPP’s side in 2011: It’s party’s government in the centre.

“A silent majority of voters favours the party that is simultaneously in power in Islamabad… They think that a like minded government in both capitals can help AJK have smooth flow of funds and subsequent infrastructure development and economic benefits,” remarks analyst Raja Shaukat Iqbal.

“On not a single occasion, a party has come into power in AJK that didn’t have its parent party or supporters ruling Islamabad at that time,” he points out, highlighting a trend that gives PML-N edge over its opponents.

One school of thought believes that the refugee seats in Pakistan badly affect the mandate given by AJK people because elections in those constituencies are rigged by the parties in power there, without any toil.

They fear that since nine of these seats are located in the Punjab, the provincial PML-N government can easily manoeuvre to clinch them for its nominees, the way MQM has been securing two seats in Karachi for its candidates since 2006.

However, given some strict steps by the election commission, these seats may not be a piece of cake in the July 21 polls, assert the officials.

In the 2011 elections, the number of registered voters in the 12 constituencies in Pakistan was 659801. However, after the elimination of dual and bogus votes in new lists, this number has reduced to 444,634.

“Secondly, not only the polling material has been dispatched to these constituencies under protection of army personnel, but also the army and paramilitary personnel are being deployed in these constituencies like that of the 29 constituencies in AJK, to arrest the chances of naked rigging, which had been the hallmark of these constituencies in the past,” says election commission spokesman Tariq Butt.

Even in the 29 constituencies of AJK, number of voters has decreased from 2.37 million in 2011 to 2.237 million in 2016.

The election commission has deployed 22000 army, 8000 paramilitary and 7500 police personnel to ensure law and order and transparency of polls.

The apparent wave in favour of the PML-N notwithstanding, many pundits predict a split mandate. But like the politics itself, the voters are also unpredictable… They say politics is a game of possibilities and therefore whoever plays his cards smartly will emerge triumphant on July 21.  

Tariq Naqash

pro-independence candidates also in the fray

Mir Afzaal Sulehria is a Muzaffarabad born political activist who has always struggled for emergence of a sovereign state of Jammu and Kashmir, currently divided between the nuclear-armed South Asian neighbors - India and Pakistan.

He is among a dozen or so nationalists, contesting the upcoming elections for the Azad Jammu and Kashmir (AJK) Legislative Assembly from different constituencies on behalf of some pro-independence organisations.

When the presidential and Legislative Assembly elections were held in AJK for the first time on the basis of adult franchise in 1970, many pro-independence leaders were among the contestants for the Assembly seats, including pioneer guerrilla leader Mohammad Maqbool Butt, who was in the fray from three constituencies of Pakistan based Kashmiri refugee.

Raja Muzaffar, a former senior leader of the Jammu Kashmir Liberation Front (JKLF), who was his polling agent in Rawalpindi Cantonment area at that time, alleges that non-Kashmiris, instead of the genuine Kashmiri voters, were facilitated to ensure Mr Butt did not succeed.

“All my objections against vote casting by non-Kashmiris were rejected outright by the officials concerned,” he recalls.

The presidential election was won by Sardar Abdul Qayyum Khan of Muslim Conference (MC), a pro-establishment party, defeating contemporaries K H Khurshid and Sardar Ibrahim Khan.

Hardly a year in office, President Qayyum introduced a provision in the AJK’s Constitution of 1970 to serve as a stumbling block to the nationalists’ participation in the electoral process.

The constitutional amendment bill that included some other important things such as the fundamental rights, establishment of supreme court, mention of Gilgit-Baltistan etc. was passed by the legislature in the absence of a dissenting voice from the then opposition.

When the 1970 Constitution was replaced by the existing AJK Interim Constitution Act 1974 the same provision was retained and there was no dissenting voice this time either from any other political party.

The provision reads: “No person or political party in Azad Jammu and Kashmir shall be permitted to propagate against, or take part in activities prejudicial or detrimental to, the ideology of the State’s accession to Pakistan.”

An aspiring candidate for the Legislative Assembly is required to put his signature under the following declaration.

“I have consented to my nomination (by the proposer and seconder); I am not subject to any disqualification; and I believe in the ideology of Pakistan, ideology of state’s accession to Pakistan, and the integrity and sovereignty of Pakistan.

After the launch of armed struggle in India-held Kashmir in 1989, nationalist elements have by and large stayed away from the AJK’s power politics. And whenever some of them took part in the process, they crossed out the declaration about accession of Kashmir to Pakistan - but only to see their nomination papers rejected by the Election Commission.

“When they say that Kashmir is a disputed territory and its ultimate fate is yet to be decided by its people through a free, fair and impartial plebiscite, how can they put embargoes on the choice of people before that stage,” says Sardar Rasheed Khan, a Rawalakot based member of the JKLF supreme council.

Though JKLF has announced boycott to the polls, some pro-independence parties have however adopted a different strategy this time round to avail themselves of this opportunity.

Except for one candidate, the rest did not cross out the declaration and hence they are among the 423 validly nominated candidates for the July 21 polls.

“We have done it under a game plan… History shows that even the founder of Pakistan had sworn allegiance to the British crown in the beginning even though he struggled against it for partition of the sub-continent,” Mr Sulehria says.

However, many, including a most respected former jurist, believe that the provision has proved to be the counterproductive.

“The UN Resolutions give a choice to the Kashmiris to decide between India and Pakistan but we have already excluded India,” says Basharat Ahmed Shaikh, a former judge of the AJK Supreme Court.

“Though the majority has digested this exclusion without demur, this provision has however turned out to be the counterproductive because it has given room to our enemy (a reference to India) to launch propaganda against Pakistan,” he adds.

Mr Muzaffar, who is settled in the US since long after seeking political asylum, echoes same views with different reasoning.

“The provision, inserted in violation to the fundamental rights, has not served the cause of Kashmir and interests of Pakistan,” he maintains.

“These laws and practices are also in contradiction to the pledges made by the government of Pakistan to the international community and the UN. On the one hand, Pakistan says that UN Security Council resolutions must apply, but our Constitution prohibits it on the other.”

Former AJK secretary law Syed Atta Mohyuddin Qadri also terms the section “a reflection of colonial attitude” and his contemporary Shaukat Jan Bachh, also a retired secretary, says it’s “irrelevant and against the fundamental rights of Kashmiris.”

“It has served to the opportunist politicians only… The cause of Kashmir has been damaged and interests of Pakistan have been made questionable,” Bachh maintains.

But, Afsar Shahid, a minister in the outgoing PPP government, defends the condition as one of the “foundational values” required to run a state.

Fifteen years ago, Mr Shahid had contested elections from his Dadyal constituency in district Mirpur as a candidate of Kashmir Freedom Movement (KFM), a “semi” pro-independence party he headed since 1989. However, he did not succeed. In the last general elections, he clinched victory as a nominee of the PPP. 

“This condition has balked designs to create anarchy in Azad Kashmir at the behest of Indian agencies,” he argues.

“As far as activities of nationalists are concerned, there is no ban on them. The JKLF for example, which is a major pro-independence organization, happens to have its head office in Pakistan since long,” he adds.  

Mr Sulehria, 35, says candidates from his Kashmir National Party have two-point manifesto: AJK should get 70 pc profit of mega projects launched by Pakistan in its territory and the 12 seats of Pakistan based Kashmiri refugees should be abolished.

However, analyst Syed Arif Bahar has a different perspective. 

“Now people rarely cast their votes owing to the ideology of the candidate, but on the basis of his clan, personal goodwill and capacity to address their day to day civic and employment related issues. And that’s why candidates from major parties get preference at the hands of the electorate,” he maintains.

“Since the candidates from the nationalist parties do not fit in to this criteria they draw negligible votes, he adds.

“And that’s why I believe this provision has merely served as a propaganda tool for India on the one hand and for those who seek asylum in European countries on the other.”

Tariq Naqash 

AJK's real issues ignored by major parties in the polls

With barely a week to go before elections for the 41 seats of the Azad Jammu and Kashmir (AJK) Legislative Assembly, verbal duels between the major political parties have not only intensified but have also led to violence in some areas. This has vitiated the peaceful political atmosphere of this quasi autonomous region.

On July 9, armed clashes between the supporters of PPP and PML-N in Haveli district caused the death of two persons and injuries to seven others, including the PML-N candidate from the area. This was the major incident in the run up to the July 21 elections that has skyrocketed hostilities and pitted the electorate against each other.

A political battle that should have been politically fought and remained confined to Azad Kashmir has however moved past the boundaries of Azad Kashmir. It is now being fought by the lieutenants of PML-N chief Nawaz Sharif and PPP chairman Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari in Islamabad because the central leadership of both parties appears to have made this election a matter of prestige.

Some of the statements by Mr Bhutto-Zardari in his public rallies in AJK before the holy month of fasting and response by Pervaiz Rasheed, Chaudhry Barjees Tahir, Dr Asif Saeed Kirmani etc. were not only fatuous they also gave the impression that the AJK elections had been hijacked by the Pakistan based parties.

“Modi ko jo yar hai ghadar hai, ghadar hai... Modi ke yar ko aik dhakka aur do” (Modi’s friend is a traitor and should be thrown away), Mr Bhutto-Zardari has repeatedly shouted at his rallies in Kashmir while referring to PM Sharif.

Outbursts like this have left a bad taste in the mouth for thinking people who can understand that animus towards his political rivals and not pain for the suffering Kashmiris has dictated Mr Bhutto-Zardari's acerbic speeches during the election campaign.

“Since Kashmir issue no more sells in our elections the Pakistani leaders should not invoke it in their fiery speeches… Exploiting local sentiments with such statements may serve their personal agenda but not that of their party or voters in this territory,” says Syed Arif Bahar, an accredited Kashmiri analyst.

Prior to Mr Bhutto-Zardari, federal ministers were also reported by the vernacular press to have vilified AJK Prime Minister Chaudhry Abdul Majeed in their rallies.

However, of late the fight has shifted to Islamabad. PPP leaders, notable among them being Raja Pervez Ashraf, Qamar Zaman Kaira and Aitzaz Ahsan, are using the elections as a stick to beat the PML-N with. 

On its part, the PML-N alleges that the PPP is trying to create a smokescreen by raising hue and cry against the alleged involvement of the federal government.

Hurling allegations against federal government is actually aimed at diverting public attention from their corruption and dismal performance in AJK, the PML-N maintains.

However, one is tempted to ask why AJK has suddenly become so crucial for both the parties? Did they feel similar pain for this area before the election atmosphere picked up? The answer is not in the affirmative.

The PPP was in power in Pakistan from 2008 to 2013. In 2011, it also formed government in AJK. However, over the next two years, when there were same parties in power in Islamabad and Muzaffarabad, AJK’s genuine issues were not resolved.

In fact, Rs55 billion meant for the post earthquake reconstruction is said to have been shifted to other heads by the PPP government, an allegation federal minister Barjees Tahir also corroborates.

The PPP amended the Constitution of Pakistan in 2010, devolving powers to provinces and empowering the elected chief executive. But AJK was not considered for similar constitutional reforms, its yearnings for the same notwithstanding. It was because the AJK Council, an institution headed by the prime minister of Pakistan and dubbed in AJK as a parallel government, suited the rulers in Islamabad in its present shape.

On its part, the PML-N has been in power for the past three years and even though its 2013 election manifesto also pledged empowerment of the government in Muzaffarabad no step towards this end was taken.

Not only that PM Sharif could not find time to resolve this issue, he did not properly attend his party’s AJK chapter for a long time.  

However, with the advent of elections the PML-N is obsessed with bringing its AJK chapter to power. 

“Perhaps PM Sharif who has been afflicted by many problems at home wants to use the victory in AJK, like that of Gilgit Baltistan and some by-elections in Pakistan, as a proof of his popularity,” says Mr Bahar.  

On the other hand, the top leadership of PPP, which has exercised full authority in AJK over the past five years, believes that the defeat in AJK polls will cause it a lot of embarrassment across the country. And that is why it too is out to fight this war with full vigor. 

“Allegations, counter allegations, mudslinging and violence as means to achieve political goals has generally been the hallmark of Pakistani politics but now the offshoots of Pakistani political parties have brought the malaise to this region as well,” says analyst Khizar Hayat Abbasi.

“Azad Kashmir has not only been one of the Pakistan’s most peaceful areas since its liberation but has also been regarded as politically stable region over the past three decades. But political tensions and hotly contested elections may challenge both of these assumptions,” he fears.

Analysts believe and rightly so that involvement of Pakistani leaders and their traducements  against each other have sent the actual issues of the state out of the spotlight.

“With present limited constitutional powers, the government in Muzaffarabad is virtually controlled and run by the bureaucracy in Islamabad, leaving the state government toothless in many key administrative and constitutional matters,” Mr Abbasi says.

“Ironically we haven’t heard these two main parties say anything on these issues publicly… Their manifestoes may have vague commitments but their past conduct is poxy,” he adds.

Mr Bahar says that political squabbling has also overshadowed other issues like load-shedding, agreements on and share in the profits of power projects, unemployment of enormous scale and reconstruction of basic infrastructure devastated by 2005 earthquake.

“Even the mainstream media is not holding serious debate on these issues.. Instead it also seems to be content with the rhetoric of these leaders,” he laments.

A sizeable section of society believes that at a time when unprecedented mass resistance in India-held Kashmir has got national and international focus, power struggle in AJK in this fashion can negatively influence the Kashmir movement and provide India validation to crush it with brute force.

Interestingly, the PTI, which is a new party in AJK, has so far kept itself away from falling-out with political rivals. However, PTI chief Imran Khan too is to come out with a categorical stand on AJK’s genuine issues, other than ritual criticism of Mr Sharif.

Tariq Naqash